If California Falls: What a Senate Vote Could Mean for EVs, Automakers, and the Future of Federal Power

Who Gains If California Is Blocked?

Sometime this week, the U.S. Senate will vote on whether to strip California of its long-standing authority to set its own vehicle emissions standards.

If the bill passes, it doesn’t just overturn a state law.
It overturns a strategy.

California’s 2035 ban on new gas-powered cars and the 16 states that follow its rules have acted as the de facto roadmap for America’s EV transition. That could end in one vote. And the automakers who aligned with that roadmap? They're about to find out what it means to be out on a limb.

This is the highest-stakes climate policy moment in the auto industry since the Clean Air Act itself. And most media coverage is missing the real impact.

This post breaks it all down: who wins, who loses, and what automakers quietly hope you won’t notice.

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What’s at Stake

Under the Clean Air Act, California has held a unique waiver for over 50 years. It allows the state to set stricter tailpipe emissions standards than federal law—and to require a rising percentage of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs).

Other states—currently 16 plus D.C. are allowed to adopt California’s rules. Combined, they represent about 40% of the U.S. auto market.

In 2022, California set this schedule:

• 35% of new cars sold must be ZEVs by 2026

• 68% by 2030

• 100% by 2035

That plan was never just California’s. It became the reference point for every major OEM’s North American strategy.

If the Senate repeals the waiver this week, that entire framework vanishes.

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Who Gains If California Is Blocked?