California vs. Washington: The Fight for Control of America's EV Future
What I Predicted and What’s Coming Next
Yesterdays delayed vote wasn’t a glitch in government scheduling. It was a signal. The California EV mandate isn’t just about emission standards anymore it’s become the front line in a broader power struggle between state autonomy, federal oversight, and an auto industry caught in the crossfire.
Let’s get clear on what’s happening, what’s next, and what this means for the people and businesses operating inside the system.
The Background
California’s Advanced Clean Cars II rule requires:
35% of new vehicles sold in the state to be zero-emission by 2026
Rising to 68% by 2030
And hitting 100% by 2035
This isn’t just California’s issue. Eleven other states have signed on together they represent about 40% of all U.S. vehicle sales. That makes this a national policy in practice, even if it’s technically a state mandate.
But House Republicans backed by pressure from key OEMs and dealer groups moved to repeal California’s Clean Air Act waiver, the federal permission that allows them to set their own stricter standards.
Yesterday’s vote was postponed, and that delay tells us something: the outcome is politically unstable, and the industry is watching closely.
The Legal Standoff
At the heart of this debate is one question:
Does California have the legal right to force a faster EV transition than the federal government?
California argues yes, backed by decades of precedent under the Clean Air Act.
The EPA issued a waiver to California, reaffirming that right.
But now, members of Congress are attempting to strip that power arguing it imposes an unfair burden on manufacturers and consumers in other states.
Here's the catch: the Government Accountability Office ruled that the EPA waiver is an order, not a rule meaning Congress likely can’t override it via the Congressional Review Act.
In plain terms: even if the House passes the repeal, it may not be enforceable without a lengthy legal fight.
What the Industry is Quietly Saying
Most major automakers publicly support electrification but behind the scenes, many are asking for time and flexibility, not mandates.
The Alliance for Automotive Innovation the industry’s largest lobbying group has warned that California’s timeline is “not grounded in consumer demand or infrastructure reality.”
Translation:
Charging infrastructure is patchy
EV inventories are high
Affordability is falling out of reach
And rural, southern, and Midwest dealers can’t move ZEV units fast enough
OEMs don’t want 50 different rules for 50 different states. They want clarity and they’re getting none of it right now.
Winners, Losers, and Strategic Shifts
Winners (for now)
Tesla, Rivian, Lucid: Built for mandates. Any acceleration in EV targets is market-making for them.
California political leadership: The delay reinforces that their waiver still holds federal weight.
Losers (or at risk)
Legacy OEMs with global supply chains and lagging domestic EV share.
Dealers sitting on aging EV inventory in ICE-preferred markets.
Consumers in lower-income areas who now face rising prices, reduced ICE choice, and patchy infrastructure.
For Dealers and Operators: What to Do Now
If you're in retail automotive, here’s what matters most in the next 90 days:
Diversify your EV strategy by region
Don’t stock EVs the same way in Orange County and Omaha. Treat California like a different country with its own rules because in this case, it is.Get ready for federal vs. state compliance wars
Your DMS, marketing, and compliance teams will need to stay fluid. What’s legal federally may soon be blocked in your region or vice versa.Train, don’t just stock
Your best defense is education. Your frontline staff must know how to sell value on EVs that customers didn’t come in asking for.Watch for OEM flexibility programs
Many brands will begin offering stair-stepped allocations or rebates based on EV turns. There will be money in compliance but only for stores who execute.
The Bigger Picture
This isn’t a regulatory debate it’s a question of who sets the rules for the modern American vehicle.
If California wins, OEMs will have no choice but to build their future product strategies around the West Coast blueprint whether it aligns with federal policy or not.
If Washington wins, we return to a more unified but slower national EV rollout, and red-state markets regain influence.
This vote, whenever it happens, won’t end the fight. But it will shape how much power individual states can exert on private industry moving forward.
Either way, one thing is clear:
California just became the most important battleground for the future of U.S. auto sales.
What I Predicted and What’s Coming Next
Back in January, I said this:
“California’s EV mandate won’t just face economic resistance it will trigger a legal and political chain reaction. The moment EV sales flatten or infrastructure lags, pressure will mount to walk it back. The federal government won’t sit quietly while one state sets the pace for the entire market.”
That moment arrived today.
And while the House may not succeed in legally repealing the EPA waiver, the mandate is already being reshaped by economic realities:
EV inventories are up.
Incentives are cooling.
And OEMs are quietly asking for a slower glide path to 2035
My prediction now is this:
The mandate will remain on the books for optics, political legacy, and ambition. But enforcement will be softened.
Penalties will be delayed. Exceptions will expand. And CARB will quietly begin offering more room to comply.
California won’t repeal the rule they’ll reinterpret it over time. Just like CAFE standards, ZEV credits, and everything else that starts with idealism and collides with reality.
And the smart operators? They’ll stop waiting for clarity. They’ll adapt fast, regionally, and with one eye on what matters most:
Margins, movement, and momentum.